Transport Insights

The transport stories you won't see in the industry-friendly media

Author

Chris Ames
  • Thames Tunnel hole gets bigger

    The Financial Times has picked up on the spiralling costs of the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC), as well as the huge sums that we will all be putting in, before private finance comes riding over the hill.

    Taxpayers will contribute more than £3bn to the Lower Thames Crossing despite ministers’ plans to seek private finance for the most expensive new highway in British history.

    The cost of the project, the first wholly new crossing across the river Thames to the east of London in 60 years, has risen from an estimate of between £5.3bn and £6.8bn in 2017 to almost £11bn, the Treasury has confirmed.

    The first figure, the £3bn of public money, may be news to some people but it is simply adding £1.2bn of historic costs to the £1.8bn that the Treasury has allocated across this financial year and the next three, including nearly a billion in last week’s Budget.

    But the cost increase to a current price tag of £11bn means a big rise in the part that the government is hoping to get private finance to contribute, to get them into a hole on a project that is otherwise unaffordable.

    The government hopes it will secure about £7.5bn of private capital, up from a figure of £6.3bn set out in March by National Highways, the public body responsible for the scheme between Kent and Essex.

    Predictably, Transport Action Network (TAN) has condemned the “utterly predictable” news, which it says will lead to significantly higher tolls being charged at the existing Dartford Crossing and the LTC.

    TAN has previously calculated that tolls at Dartford could triple to pay for the LTC. Director Chris Todd said:

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  • Lightwood hides behind non-existent process on POPEs

    Hapless roads minister Simon Lightwood continues to own the cover-up over the unpublished evaluation reports on smart motorways, while giving nothing away.

    To recap, the Department for Transport (DfT) is sitting on a total of 14 Post Opening Performance Evaluation (POPE) reports, at least nine of which were due to be completed by National Highways in 2022, and will not allow the government-owned company so publish them.

    This is supposedly while it carries out “assurance”, but National Highways has said it cannot publish the reports until ministers work out how to spin the data.

    Rotherham MP Sarah Champion (pictured, left) has asked two parliamentary questions (so far). The first was:

    To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what discussions she has had with National Highways on Post Opening Project Evaluation (POPE) reports; and what her planned timetable is for publication of existing unpublished POPE reports.

    In response to which, Lightwood merely owned the cover-up without answering the question:

    Post opening project evaluation (POPE) reports are detailed and complex evaluations and it is right that we take the time to fully assure findings. We are committed to transparency and will provide an update on publication in due course.

    Champion then asked:

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  • Reeves seeks more spin for her buck

    With Rachel Reeves under fire for her pre-Budget spin, it’s worth another look at how misleading her claims were about the post-Budget announcement of local highways maintenance funding for the last four years of the Parliament.

    The unfortunate thing is, Labour is (for now) giving councils the funding boost and medium-term certainty they need, but mangling the message.

    There is a significant – and positive – emphasis on councils doing preventative treatments, which takes the emphasis away from filling potholes in the short term but should mean there are fewer to fill later on.

    This may explain why, as I have said, Reeves again misstated the Labour manifesto pledge to fix a million extra potholes for every year of the Parliament, now only talking about doing so by the end of the period.

    But (according to the Treasury press release) she also said:

    We are doubling the funding promised by the previous government

    This is, I am afraid to say, doubly misleading, as the small print in the press release explains that it compares:

    £1.067bn funding allocated by the previous Government for FY2024/25, to £2.134bn funding allocated by this Government for FY2029/30

    So, firstly, it isn’t money promised by the Tories but actually allocated.

    And this confirms that the claim is based on two years that are five years apart and therefore subject to inflation.

    The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has published Regulatory guidance on intelligent transparency, which states:

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  • No surprise! Reeves pulls pothole cash out of the hat

    Ministers have announced £7.3bn capital funding for local highway maintenance in England between 2026-27 and 2029-30, keeping the £500m annual “uplift” , now badged as “incentive funding”, with councils required to jump through as yet undefined hoops to get three quarters of the extra cash.

    As I reported, the Budget deliberately held back details of this cash to allow a new announcement, stating at the time only that there would be “over £2 billion” in 2029-30.

    The cash will gradually ramp up, from £1,617m next year to £2,134m with the largest increase around a quarter of a billion pounds coming in the final year.

    The Department for Transport (DfT) said that “as the case in 2025 to 2026, a portion of this funding will be designated as incentive funding”. This ranges from £525m next year to £540m.

    This funding will be subject to local highway authorities demonstrating that they comply with best practice in highways maintenance, for example, by spending all the Department for Transport’s capital grant on highways maintenance and adopting more preventative maintenance.

    The DfT said that at least 25% of the extra cash will be dependent on local highway authorities publishing transparency reports. Rather confusingly, it said all incentive funding will be withheld if reports are not published. 

    The DfT said that in 2026-27, (a further) 50% of the incentive funding will be subject to local highways authorities’ performance.

    Of course they don’t know how it will work yet:

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  • No pledge of more cash as climate change wrecks rail routes

    I’ve previously raised the question about whether the government is putting sufficient cash into our transport networks to fund climate change adaption, with ministers often just saying they are putting in more money rather than asserting that it’s enough.

    But a new written parliamentary answer from transport minister Keir Mather doesn’t even bother to address the question of whether there will be more money.

    Asked by Sarah Dyke, Liberal Democrat MP for Glastonbury and Somerton:

    To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, if she will provide additional funding to help mitigate ongoing soil moisture deficit effects for railway companies.

    Mather gave a long and rambling reply on behalf of Heidi Alexander that began with a description of the problem…

    The Department for Transport funds Network Rail to operate, maintain, and develop the nation’s railway infrastructure. As the climate changes, we expect to see hotter, drier summers, and therefore we will expect to encounter more instances of soil moisture deficit.

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  • Labour repents over pothole pledge repeat

    The Treasury has insisted that the Labour government remains committed to fixing an extra million potholes across England in each year of the Parliament, despite some very contradictory language in yesterday’s Budget document.

    And it looks as if funding for local authority highway maintenance may be restored to this year’s level to do this, with a funding announcement deliberately held back to get new headlines.

    Yesterday I noted that the Treasury’s official Budget document had redefined Labour’s manifesto commitment as “to fix an additional 1 million potholes per year by the end of the Parliament”, rather than every year along the way

    However, a Treasury spokesperson has told me that the “every year” commitment remains intact.

    I also noted, correctly, that none of the Budget documents had stated what funding would be for the years between now and 2029-30, when the commitment is over £2bn annually.

    This year’s funding is around £1.6bn, which is said to include an “uplift” of £500m on base funding of £500m.

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  • Labour keeps digging on Thames Tunnel with another £891m

    Labour is to throw the best part of another billion pounds at the Lower Thames Crossing as it looks for a way of funding the mega-project.

    Today’s Official Treasury Budget document states:

    Funding for the Lower Thames Crossing in 2027-28 and 2028-29 – The government is committing a further £891 million to complete the publicly funded works for the Lower Thames Crossing, as part of its staged approach, after which the private sector will take forward construction and long-term operation.

    This is on top of the £840m already allocated for 2025-26 and 2026-27. Ironically, as I have reported, £250m for the current year was allocated in last year’s Budget but kept quiet.

    The budget document says the further £891m is “the final tranche of government support to enable the private sector to take forward construction and long-term operation”.

    It adds:

    The government’s preferred financing option at this stage is the Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model. The project will be taken forward on that basis, with formal market engagement launching in 2026.

    It looks very much as if ministers are some way from securing finance for building the project and even further from anything actually happening.

    In the meantime, they tout it as a “key driver of growth”, without any real evidence that this is true.

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  • Labour postpones pothole pledge

    It looks as if Rachel Reeves has dropped the £500m “uplift” for local road maintenance (in England) and Labour appears to have ditched its manifesto pledge to “additional one million potholes across England in each year of the next parliament”.

    Here is what Labour’s manifesto said:

    We will fix an additional one million potholes across England in each year of the next parliament

    Here is what the Budget document says:

    By 2029-30, the government will commit over £2 billion annually for local authorities to repair, renew and fix potholes on their roads – doubling funding since coming into office. This record level of funding will enable the government to exceed its manifesto commitment to fix an additional 1 million potholes per year by the end of the Parliament.

    So the extra million potholes a year have been put back from every year of the Parliament to the last year of the Parliament, i.e. 2029-30.

    Despite promises of long-term funding settlements, the Budget document does not appear to give a total funding figure for 2026-27 or any year between now and 2029-30.

    And the extra £500m that went into 2025-26 allocations with great fanfare in last year’s Budget is not trumpeted today, suggesting that it has gone.

    The “doubling” claim  is dubious as it does not take five years’ worth of inflation into account but concentration on 2029-30 suggests that the next few years will be bleak.

    The Budget document also states:

    The implementation of eVED will provide revenues for this new higher level of roads maintenance funding to be continued for the long term.

    The focus on what happens at the end of the parliament reliance on eVED, which begins in 2028, again supports the idea that money will be tight in the meantime.

    The Department for Transport’s Capital Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) wobbles around for the next four years from about £23bn to a bit over £24bn but it’s impossible within that to pick out highway maintenance funding.

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  • Richmond Council polluting the Thames with a lot more than coffee

    The road gully into which a woman poured a small amount of coffee – and was briefly fined – discharges unmitigated into the River Thames with all the toxic runoff from roads in the area.

    Thames Water has told me that the gully near the train station in Richmond, Surrey is linked to a surface water drainage sewer system (rather than a combined sewer system with domestic waste water) linked to an outfall on the Thames. A Thames Water map shows that there is no facility to mitigate the runoff at the outfall.

    This means that although the small amount of coffee poured away by Burcu Yesilyurt would – when it rained – have made its way into the river, it would have joined many gallons of rainwater contaminated with oil residues, tyre and brake wear particles, heavy metals, and other organic matter.

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  • DfT working out how to spin bad news on smart motorway safety

    Update: National Highways has told me that the DfT is sitting on a total of 14 reports. Of these, nine are five years after and five are one year after.

    National Highways has said it will publish the reports on smart motorway performance that the Department for Transport (DfT) has been suppressing for nearly three years once ministers have decided how to spin the “complicated” data.

    As I have reported, ministers called in the Post Opening Project Evaluation (POPE) reports, at least nine of which were due to be completed by National Highways in 2022, and have not allowed the government-owned company so publish them, supposedly while it carries out “assurance”.

    The reports could show that individual smart motorway schemes are failing on issues such as safety, the environment and their impact on the economy.

    I asked both National Highways and the DfT to disclose the reports under the Freedom of Information Act but the company has refused under section 22 (1), claiming that it had agreed “a clear route” to publication with the DfT.

    Among other “public interest” reasons for withholding the data it said:

    We have agreed an approximate date for release by DfT pre Christmas 2025 (subject to DfT agreeing the comms handling plan.

    Publication will take place once other specified actions have taken place including briefing of ministers, agreement on a comms plan and final quality assurance.

    It explained that the POPE are “complicated” and that it is in the public interest “that the communication of the results is led by the DfT”.

    Significantly, National Highways added that the safety sections “include further analysis of data that is already in the public domain, and which has been reported on by NH in its annual stocktake and safety reports”.

    Unable to resist spinning the findings even in a supposedly objective balancing exercise, National Highways added:

    The POPE reports support the conclusion already drawn that Smart Motorways are amongst the country’s safest roads.

    This is clearly the DfT’s concern – National Highways can amalgamate data to disguise the fact that individual schemes are less safe than they want to admit but POPE reports are at a scheme level.

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