Transport Insights

The more I look into Tory Northumberland County Council’s claim to have found an additional £200m+ in “driver frustration” benefits from the A1 Morpeth to Ellingham dualling scheme that was secretly shelved by the Tories, the dodgier it becomes.

Since I wrote about this last week, I noticed that the study on which the claims were based, which the council still hasn’t published, was described as

A technical study carried out to support the push for future dualling of the A1

which should give some concern over its objectivity.

The gist of the story from last week is that, with National Highways’ previous appraisal showing overall benefits of around £280m at today’s rates – “covering a range of metrics such as journey time savings and reduced accidents” – and the new study claiming to find potential driver frustration benefits on top of this of between £200m and £225m over a 60-year period,

up to half a billion pounds of benefits could be generated

as council leader Glen Sanderson put it.

But this still leaves the £500m scheme still struggling to break even.

And how valid is the council’s application of 2014 research showing that drivers place a value on avoiding frustrating traffic conditions, allowing the benefits of road improvements to be “measured not just by time saved, but also by the reduction in driver frustration”?

One road safety expert told me he would be doubtful of benefits anticipated over a 60-year period, over which time automated driving will become increasingly significant, and driver impatience and frustration with traffic speed likely to become a far less significant factor as a result.

Of course, with the council not publishing the study, we can’t know to what extent it took this into account.

Meanwhile, Tory MP Alison Griffiths has continued her colleagues’ fruitless line of parliamentary questions about four cancelled schemes National Highways schemes, including A1 scheme, asking the transport secretary

whether changes to the carbon values used in transport appraisal since 5 July 2024 resulted in a reduction in the assessed value for money of any of the four cancelled National Highways schemes.

The answer from roads minister Justin Madders rather shot her blame-Net-Zero-for-everything fox:

Changes to the carbon values used in transport appraisal since July 2024 did not result in a reduction in the assessed value for money for any of the four schemes prior to their cancellation.