Transport Insights

We’re back to efforts to revive the “poor” value for money A1 Morpeth to Ellingham scheme, with local leaders claiming to have found £200m of uncounted benefits down the back of the sofa but still not making the business case stack up.

The (North East) Evening Chronicle’s political editor, who clearly knows little about road building or transport appraisal, reports:

Dualling the A1 in Northumberland could deliver well over £200 million more in benefits than previously thought, according to a new research. A previous £500 million plan to dual 13 miles worth of single carriageway between Morpeth and Ellingham was scrapped in 2024, after the Labour government deemed that it was not value for money.

It was actually the Chronicle that first revealed last year:

Leaked report shows A1 dualling in Northumberland was cancelled in 2021 and kept from public

But now its highly gullible reporting is based on a press release from Northumberland Council that purports to show the outcome of a study that it has not (yet) published:

Research shows that drivers place a value on avoiding these conditions, and people are willing to pay for a smoother, less stressful journey.

Because of this, the benefits of road improvements can be measured not just by time saved, but also by the reduction in driver frustration. If a scheme helps drivers travel at a more consistent speed and reduces delays, that improvement can be converted into a monetary value, showing the economic benefit of a better driving experience.

The council is citing “a comparable study used on the A9 dualling project in Scotland” but that appears to be work in 2014 that was used to justify a scheme that the Scottish Government is still delivering, very slowly.

But is it double-counting benefits that are already counted in standard appraisal? Given that the original appraisal included

a range of metrics such as journey time savings

I would say yes.

It is also once again shamelessly promoting the fallacy that a recent, unrepresentative spike in casualties represents the long-term situation:

The study also found casualty figures on the A1 (between Morpeth and Ellingham) are the highest for ten years, with seven people killed in 2026 (just one less than the previous nine years combined), while traffic levels rose by over 6% between 2018 and 2025 – with more than 21,000 vehicles a day using the road.

I have asked the council to point me to a copy of the study. It said it was knocking it up into a form that can be published.

But it looks like the report has cherry-picked the highlights from the press release, and the BCR is still struggling around 1 with costs probably now over half a billion quid.

Note that Council Leader Glen Sanderson is reported to have said:

This study clearly demonstrates to the Government why the Business Case for dualling is now more compelling than ever.

…

Our study shows up to half a billion pounds of benefits could be generated

Interestingly, North East mayor Kim McGuiness has given a quote for the council press release that suggests that she doesn’t want to touch the dodgy “frustration” claims with a barge pole:

Local people don’t need to be told how dangerous it can be to drive along the A1 in Northumberland.

Lives are being lost and although the solution – dualling the road – is obvious to everyone, action still isn’t being taken.

Now we also know that poor road safety on the A1 is harming our economy. I will continue to push for a resolution – we must dual the A1 without delay.