Transport Insights

There’s a very strong glass half-full, glass half-empty element to the latest figures on the UK’s new car market from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), with registrations rising 7.1% and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) taking a 27.3% share of the market.

The SMMT described the overall figure of 160,662 units as the strongest May performance since before the pandemic, with private buyer demand rising 17.2% “as market reinvigorated by wider choice and competitive deals”.

Overall, this means more cars on the road and, despite the increased share of the market taken by BEVs, the sale of 66,223 petrol vehicles was only 7.1% down year on year and the 7,662 diesel cars was only 2.2% down. These vehicles will be on the road, adding to pollution and climate change, for at least a decade.

The SMMT continues to grumble about the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, claiming that the 27.3% market share achieved by BEVs was still “short of mandated 33% target”.

Chief Executive Mike Hawes said that “progress should not be mistaken for mission accomplished” and that the gap – “with dramatically tougher targets next year and beyond”

highlights how much of the transition still depends on government and – especially – manufacturer incentives as billions in discounting continues whilst consumer demand lags ambition.

Writing on LinkedIn, Colin Walker, head of transport at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, noted “efforts in some quarters to spin them as underwhelming”, describing the SMMT reference to a “mandated 33% target” as “very misleading” as “The industry is NOT mandated to hit 33% EV sales in 2026.”

He explained:

Flexibilities in the mandate, such as those that allow credits to be earned through the sale of petrol, diesel and hybrids vehicles that emit comparatively low levels of CO2, have the effect of lowering the car industry’s headline EV sales target. It has been calculated by New Automotive that this means the real EV sales target for the car industry in 2026 is 24.6%, rather than 33%. With market share for the year so far at 24%, and sales in May at 27%, far from struggling the car industry is in fact on course to comply with its EV sales target for 2026, just as it did in 2024 and 2025 (the first two years of the mandate).

On the other hand, there are many people who think that EVs are not the solution they are cracked up to be.