Transport Insights

MyLondon has an excellent write-up of the submission from the city’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, to the Commons Transport Committee on the subject of Heathrow expansion, which argues that the additional flights – and traffic – risk wiping out the progress that Khan has made to improve air quality.

The government’s case to move forward with expanding Heathrow Airport has not been “sufficiently made” and heavily relies on outdated evidence from 2015, the Mayor of London has said.

The Department for Transport published the Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement (HENPS) in June to “provide the basis for decision making on any development consent application” for a new runway.

But City Hall has said that there is a “significant gap between the strategic narrative and the evidence presented”, adding: “Many of the benefits underpinning the government’s argument are uncertain, only partially quantified, outside the core appraisal framework, or require complementary policies beyond airport expansion which are not assessed.”

That gap between narrative and evidence is very much the DfT’s stock in trade, but Khan also argues that ministers plan to take advantage of environmental improvements unrelated to airport expansion, i.e. to capitalise on the “headroom” created through policies such as the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).

Meanwhile, research continues to show what a great success the ULEZ has been.

MyLondon also notes:

The HENPS says that the installation of a third runway must not lead to any extra noise than what was recorded in 2024.

However, the Mayor has said that this will “deny local communities the benefits of any reduction in noise that comes from technological and operational advances, as this will be used instead to enable more flights”.

This has always been the problem with Heathrow expansion. The DfT always wants to bank improvements in emissions and noise before they happen, meaning that residents will never feel the benefit.

As usual, there is a lot of wishful thinking about modal shift:

Ministers have suggested that Heathrow can expand without resulting in any extra road trips to and from the airport, but for this to happen with a third runway, the percentage of people using public transport to get there would need to increase from 39 to 65 per cent.

TfL’s analysis indicates that this cannot happen without extra connectivity and capacity on the rail networks serving the airport.

And the piece ends with another reminder that Andy Burnham really doesn’t get climate change, beyond banning disposable barbecues:

There is no indication that the new government will reverse plans to push on with the third runway.