Transport Insights

The Department for Transport (DfT) has been so desperate to make a good news story out of the announcement that the national (England) £2 cap on bus fares will return that it has highlighted the difference between what the Tories brought in and the current £3 cap.

The new cap is good news but it doesn’t kick in until January.

The DfT’s s announcement states:

The last £2 fare cap saw an estimated 30 million more journeys taken by bus in just 10 months.

And Jason Prince, Director of the Urban Transport Group, says:

Cheaper fares not only make bus travel more affordable but they can help to significantly drive passenger numbers

The implication is that the increase in the fare cap that Labour brought in (compared to the Tory policy) drove passengers off the buses.

And indeed, in November Mobilityways’ Commuter Census found that the increase in bus fares from £2 to £3 in January 2025 had a measurable impact on commuter behaviour:

There has been a near-complete reversal of the 17% increase in bus uptake recorded between 2023 and 2024 – when the £2 fare cap was put in place (January 2024). The findings highlight just how price-sensitive commuters are when it comes to public transport – and how quickly modal shifts can occur in response to policy changes.

The Department for Transport’s own figures from the first half of 2025 support the trend recorded in Commuter Census, showing a decline in bus patronage since the fare cap was raised. While the cap remains in place, the increase to £3 appears to have pushed many commuters back into their cars – with driving alone rising for the first time since 2022, according to Commuter Census.

And those lower patronage figures look set to continue for the rest of the year.

But of course, if Burnham meant to highlight the difference between himself and Starmer, he has succeeded.