Transport Insights

Transport Action Network (TAN) has seized upon the confirmation that the Lower Thames Crossing will not open until 2034, but even this date is said not to be realistic and the mega-project is not even due to have a full business case (FBC) until 2028.

The delay to the FBC means that Labour will continue to throw money (£3bn) at the project before working out whether it is worth doing and the rest of us will be kept in the dark.

TAN has pointed to the appointment letter naming Kate Cohen as the Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) for the project:

You are required to undertake this role until the end of the project planned for 2034, or until the responsibility is transferred. 

In fact, the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority’s annual report 2024-25 states:

Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project’s end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 20/04/2034.

[…]

This baseline is no longer viable after a second Written Ministerial Statement was issued on the 4 October 2024 extending the Development Consent Order Decision date until 23 May 2025 in order to allow more time for the application to be considered further, including as part of the spending review [Development Consent Order Consent granted 25 March 2025]. The project is currently working on the impact to the Open for Traffic following the second Written Ministerial Statement.

No-one seems to have told Matt Palmer, executive director of the Lower Thames Crossing, about 2034. In this recent press release about a non-existent piece of tunnelling kit, he said:

The search for our giant tunnel boring machine is now on, putting us on track to open the Lower Thames Crossing in the early 2030s. 

The SRO appointment letter also tasks Cohen with:

delivering a quality FBC in 2028 to gain approval through DfT and wider government investment governance and support ministerial decisions

Hold on a minute, that same press release says:

The machine is expected to be purchased next year before digging begins in 2028. Next summer, work on the northern tunnel entrance where the tunnel machine will begin its journey will get under way.

So, tunnelling is due to start the same year as the FBC is due and well before it has been written, let alone agreed, huge sums of money are being spent and work carried out on the scheme.

The scheme has a benefit cost ratio of just 1.46*, which is expected to fall, although there is wishful thinking that the FBC will boost it with the inclusion of “wider economic benefits”.

As the notorious Downing Street memo in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq put it: the facts are being fixed around the policy.

Let’s give roads minister Simon Lightwood the last word to explain why none of this matters – it’s all just a demonstration of the government’s determination:

The launch of the procurement process for Europe’s largest tunnelling machine marks a major step forward for this transformational project, backed by £891 million in the Budget which demonstrates this Government’s determination to deliver the infrastructure our economy needs to grow.

* According the (outdated) accounting officer assessment, although it is even lower in more recent appraisals and will be lower than 1, even with “wider economic benefits”, at the current estimated cost of £11bn.